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This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate.
Notes considerable English seasonal variability over the centuries Examines the key component parts of the weather that affect the British Isles Queries whether wind direction, strength and longevity are major factors in shaping our climate over the centuries.
Weather comprises the day to day events that we An essay on reasons of napoleons defeat experience. Climate is officially the trend of the weather often temperature and rainfall taken over a continuous thirty year period.
The two terms have sometimes been used in an interchangeable manner here, when a period of more than a year is being examined.
This article commented on the interesting-but not climatically valid-observation that no one born in England this century has known warming; in fact there had been a slight decline in temperatures, albeit still maintained at a historically high level. It shows this decline continuing, although recent warm seasons have slightly reduced the downwards trend Figure 1 To put this into a much broader context, here is the seasonal data from the start of the CET record in Figure 2 Figure 2a linked here [ 2a ], shows the seasonal temperatures in much greater detail.
This graphic shows some of the stations identified as cooling over the statistically meaningful period of at least 30 years Figure 3 The take home message was that whilst undoubtedly most stations around the world had warmed in recent decades, it could be observed that there were large warming AND cooling trends in many places.
With regards to cooling, some one third of stations worldwide showed a trend that was downwards, rather than upwards.
This was confirmed by Richard Muller of the BEST project several years ago in a personal email, but it must be said there are many caveats to this observation, especially as regards the length, amount and consistency of this cooling.
The blue circles show locations where the trend line has indicated cooling weather over the last years. The red crosses show where it has warmed. The context of this UHI adjustment can be seen in this graphic showing population growth.
Figure 5 The same data is shown below, excluding the population data which somewhat distorts the axis of the graphs Figure 6 In considering the urbanisation factor used, it can be noted that the current population of Greater London is the same as that of the whole of England years ago.
One of the stations used in recent times, Ringway, was situated near a rapidly expanding airport. It was retired in England at ,sq km and a population of 55 million, is less than the size of New York state at ,sq km with a population of 20 million.
So England, with its small size and large population could be considered one large heat island with the CET stations in the middle of it.
In recent emails with the Met office I understand that during they carried out some work with regards to re-evaluating the CET daily and monthly series and current urbanisation adjustments have been revisited. The result is that a new version of CET with supporting documentation is currently being formulated.
Any differentiation with the existing series will need to be scientifically justified. The immense amount of scientific analysis that goes into making adjustments to the record can be seen in this paper written by Met Office authors [ link ].
So it may end up that the urbanisation corrections could be larger for more recent years, but to comment on the likely adjustments, if any, would be mere speculation at this point. Setting that issue aside for the time being, we can extract a variety of other data from an analysis of the seasons.
With a rising trend virtually from the start of both the official and extended record, fewer seasons would be counted as exceptional at the end, than at the start, of the graphic. It was from around that some of the most severe periods of the LIA, with considerable glacier growth, appear to have occurred.
Onto it has been superimposed extended CET. As can be seen from this graphic and the data noted in the other graphics, glacier growth or retreat does not necessarily occur only during short and sporadic periods of constant cold or warmth, but from the dominant weather characteristics of the entire period.
Figure 8 Looking again at Figure 7, what is notable is that even in the cold early period there were many mild winters.
This most recently happened in when a fairly cool year up to then was changed by one of the warmest Decembers on record. Similarly a cold season, especially a winter, can cool down the year. If there are two or more exceptional seasons in the same year that will have a considerable impact on the average temperature of that year.
In Figure 9 below I examined the data covering the period onwards, with a particular view to looking closely at the especially cold periods. Figure 9 that follows is taken from this article. Figure 9 The criteria for the temperature of years — ranging from warm red through to cold blu e- is shown in the legend heading the graphic.
From this it can be seen that there were warm years, many moderate years, many cool years and many cold years, with the latter mostly being in the first two thirds of the period, the warm moderate years being well spread out with a definite grouping around and especially at the end and numerous cool ones, which again taper off towards the end.
The suggested warmth at the reconstructed start around is tantalising and is better seen in context in Figure 6. This was said by some chroniclers to include the hottest and driest spring, then summer on record, followed by the warmest winter ever and an equally dry and hot spring and summer and autumn the following year.
The three years prior to this had also been exceptionally warm, as described in 6 of the Most Catastrophic Weather Events in British History. What can we make of the overall extended historic picture when looking at the seasons and the individual years, augmented by the vast amount of literature and scientific studies, much of it referenced in the appendices of the articles cited above?p.
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